Signal & Noise

Finally after a lot of start-stop, false starts , I managed to finish Nate Silver's Signal and Noise - Why so many predictions fail and some don't. Nate Silver and his fivethirtyeight.com blog were hugely successful and popular for his US presidential elections and analysis.

This book covers a wide range of chapters - economics, stock markets, earthquakes, weather forecasting, terrorist attacks, baseball games. Reading can get a bit cumbersome and boring especially if you don't have a finance background or US-centric baseball/election stuff. The purpose of the book is to in a way identify what we know and what we think we know. The constant recurring in the book is to embrace uncertainty and bayesian way of thinking. The constant need to revise your understanding and hypothesis as and when you encounter newer evidence is what is missing most predictions and forecasting. Isolating false positives, noise from signals plays a key role - but on most occasions, it is difficult to differentiate signal from noise. This is where the bayesian reasoning provides a contextual information to solving.


Most times we think we are good at prediction than we actually are.

we focus on stories about the world as we would like to be, not how it really is

When you can't state your innocence, proclaim your ignorance.

When facts change, i change my mind -  John Maynard Keynes

A forecast is no good if no one is listening to it

Prediction is as much a means to the end. It can play a key role in hypothesis testing. Model is a tool to understand the complexities of the universe, not a substitute.

Heuristics are useful, but they are prone to biases and blindspots.

what good is a prediction, if you arent wiling to put money on it - put money on your predictions

Bayesian thinking : New evidence should not lower the estimate of likelihood. Should increase the overall strength n theory

A consensus is not synonymous with unanimity. The consensus is merely a simple majority

Known knowns, unknown knowns, unknown unknowns - Donald Rumsfeld

Creative Confidence

Creative confidence busts the myth that only few people can be creative and others are not creative. Most people under-utilize the creative talent. Creative confidence helps us reclaim our creativity, passion and fun. True potential of our brain is unknown and it is not limited by what we’ve done before. The Process of Guided Mastery will help to overcome fear and help people believe that they can change the situation and accomplish what they had set to do in the world. To be creative, we need to fail more. Experiment with experiences; embrace continuous learning and start designing your own life. Life is a creative innovation lab. Life is full of side hobbies and experiments. Try doing experiments, do it creatively.

Be a fly on the wall in your customer world, understand his pain points, try your own service, talk with unexpected experts. The best way to gain creative confidence is through action – taken one step at a time.. Doug Diez at GE with scan machine, Embrace infant warmers, Pulse news creators, etc and many more examples.

References/Quotes:

Failure sucks, but instructs – IDEO

Job.Career. Calling – People’s relation to their work Amy Wrzseniewski (Curse of competence. (Actively unhappy about work)

How can we ‘Improving video conference’ to how can we provide viable alternative to air travel – John Chambers Cisco (reframing challenges)

Knowing – Doing gap : HBR  how to turn knowledge to action

How to draw anything (Napkin academy)

Kelley brothers – David and Tom Kelley, Albert Bandura, SirKen Robinson, Claudia Kotchka (P&G)

Toolkits : Dschool.stanford.edu | OpenIDEO |

Key methods (writing this so that I keep track for my future use):

1. Mind maps – for convergent + divergent thinking
2. Note down list of all ideas you get in a day
3. SAY – Think – Do – Feel (all need to be aligned to successful)
4. Empathy maps
5. I Like / I wish Constructive and effective feedback (My favorite!)
6. Speed dating 
7. - how would your family members describe you
   - If you had $100000000000,..
   - You wish your parents told..
8. Nick names in a group event
9. Journey maps
10. Dream/Gripe. Convert Dream/Dripe into  Problems to works – How might we..?

Another review of the book in yourstory

Steve Jobs

Fascinating to read about Steve Jobs and his approach to changing people's life.  As a person deeply interested in building products, companies, entrepreneurship and business, i read this book very slowly - Googled for the stories and people mentioned in the book, watched his keynote speeches, searched for interviews and quotes. There were many goosebumps level moments and quotes that i awed. Not always you get a truly inspiring account (Both positives and negatives) of person who lived in your contemporary world.

The last chapter 'Legacy' aptly summarizes Jobs in his own words. He was definitely not an inventor. He possessed a remarkable ability to connect different ideas and different things to build products and companies that transformed people's lives. Empathy, Focus, Impute were tools he used his endeavor. He made people do impossible with his reality distortion field and bring out the best in them. What you see is what you get

'Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication' - Da Vinci

I you're don't love something, you're not going to go the extra mile, work the extra weekend and challenge the status quo as much.

In craziness we see genius.

Approach to building companies/Products
'You never start a company with the goal of getting rich. Your goal will be to make something you believe in and making a company that will last'

As a start-up scales
It is too easy as a team grows to put up with a few B players

Why apple and not HP/Altair at the valley
'It is better to be a pirate than to join the navy'

Relationship with people
He was both a romantic and afraid to be a romantic. Arrogant, peevish, emotional were all part of his mood swings. Either you're a hero or a bozo. He had a deep connect with every girl friend he had. So many people he slept with. Wonder how he found purest and deepest connect with every women! (#whatisthisidonteven)

Music 
Every time the book talked about i was excited. Given my knowledge about Bob Dylan and Beatles were limited, I googled for 'Like a rolling stone', 'You say want a revolution', 'Here comes the sun'

If he was an asshole, How to put up with him

Every one had their problems with Jobs. Chrisann Bernnan, John Sculley, Mike Markula, BillG, EricS, Steve Woz, endless list. Two people who managed him well Tim Cook and Jon Ivey. Both had deep connect with Jobs philosophies, but a bit more grounded persona. He was better at being an underdog than being a humble giant.

'If you didn't voice your opinion he would mow you down. He takes contrary positions to create more discussions because it might lead to better result' - Tim Cook

'Ideas are fragile. You have to be tender when they're in development' - Jon Ivey

'The best way to create the future is to invent it' 
His life, his philosophy, his products leaves an indelible impression on my thinking, career and life. Thank you Steve!

Outliers

Outliers - The Story of Success by Malcolm Gladwell

Outliers are people who had the strength and presence of mind to seize the opportunities that come their way. Gladwell uses life examples of Bill gates, Beatles, Bill joy, Hockey players, and air crashes of Korean airlines to understand different outliers. He argues that Achievement is talent plus preparation and Successful people don’t do it alone. Even factors like where they come from matters and the ancestors have an impact. The cumulative effect of small but significant factors can make a huge difference.

Not all people born in a month or in a place are successful.  People at the top who work much much harder than others and have more than 10000 hours in a field become successful. Success is a function of persistence and doggedness and the willingness to work hard.

While conceptually the book covers the concept of 10000 hours, and explains about successful people. But I wonder how many of these factors are controllable and can help a personal become successful in life.

Here’s one more example of Outliers concept. On class 12 exams in Tamil Nadu.

Gladwell is a good story teller. Worth a read.

Book Review : Dongri To Dubai - Six Decades of The Mumbai Mafia

Author : S. Hussain Zaidi

I was eager to read about Mumbai mafia and this book is like an encyclopedia covering Haji Mastan, Karim Lala, Varadaraja Mudaliar, Karim Lala, Dawood Ibrahim kaskar, Chota Rajan, Chota Shakeel, Abu Salem, Anees Ibrahim. Reading through this book, you realize how many films had these sub plots. This is a Mass masala movie. 3 Nagayans, 2 Baashas, 4 Pudhupettai, 3 Thalapathis, Satya, Gangs of Wasseypur rolled into one film.

The story of a brave young boy, whose father was a police constable, was used by Mumbai police to wipe out other gang lords in Mumbai and eventually became their nemesis. The book portrays D larger than life and minutely explains how D changes his game each time. A man created by the system, ended up using the system and its loopholes and manipulated it with his bravado, his lust for power and cunningness to become a larger than life figure.

I liked the initial story sketch of Tamil Nadu born Mumbai dons Haji Mastan and Varadaraja Mudaliar and how they ruled the roost. ManiRatnam later made Nayagan loosely based on Varadaraja Mudaliyar. The scene where Dawood is summoned by Police and Dawood’s father as police constable takes us back to Rajnikant, Raghuvaran pair of Baasha and Mark Antony.

Some personal favorite lines:

'Necessity may be the mother of invention, but it is also the father of crime'

'Keep people’s bellies full and balls empty'

'Offence is the best form of defence and the best way to take revenge is to hit where it hurts the most'

'The human tendency is to become oblivious to other issues in life when the coffers are filling'

PS: I don’t endorse criminality or abuse of power. Just that the book is an engaging read.

Targets for 2013

New year resolutions and targets needn't be posted in January. I kick started the year with a few actionable items and hope to follow them in the rest of my life.

1. 15 mins exercise
Being a sportsman, fitness and exercise was never a issue. But I did reasonably well in 2013, so far. Auroville Marathon ensured i prepare myself and remain injury free.

2. Be on time; Punctual
Be it office meetings or meeting friends, i desperately want to be on time and avoid those stern looks. Also the fact that i'm using someone else's time.

3. Stop Watching Tv
Too much noise and glitz, nothing informative, thought provoking or inspiring comes on Tv. And most of the interesting interviews or news items are online in Youtube channels. A 3 hr film is played for 4.5 hrs with news and ads. Highlights of a cricket match or ESPN Sportscenter is a good way to keep myself updated.

4. Write a Small note at the EOD
I wanted to log certain actions i do this year, milestones achieved and interesting characters i met. I've never had the habit of writing diaries. Just wanted to keep track of where i was at the year beginning, and how much I've changed by year end.

5. More Thank You and Congrats; Less Sorry.
What is there in saying Sorry and Thank you, you don't lose anything. (Frankly i don't have anything; that's a different issue). It takes some courage to ask sorry or even to appreciate people.

6. Read Books
As a matter of fact, i've read more books in these 5 months of 2013 than in my entire life span. I'm finding it interesting. Nevertheless good.

7. Meet Deadlines; Not fall in my own eyes
This year I plan to set realistic deadlines and improve my productivity. Not meeting a deadline or your commitment is like falling in your own eyes and i hate it.

List is exhaustive. I'll keep adding as and when i follow something. What's wrong in writing about good things :)

Book Review: India after Gandhi

Boy o boy whaddabook!! Take a bow Mr.Guha and his team :)

There are two reasons why i wanted to read this book:

1. Big Fan of History: I've always believed that history should be studied for the attitude, mental strength of the people involved and for the causes that lead to extraordinary events in world history. Unfortunately our textbooks preach only events and when things happened than why they happened.

2. The need to know what happened after 1947 (where our school textbooks stop) till say 1998 when i starting knowing things myself (Vevaram therinja vayasu)

Ram Guha gives a balanced view on most of the mercurial events pertaining to Independent India. He covers almost all regions of the country including Kashmir Issue, Kerala/Bengal Communist story, Naxalite problem, Language based Dravidian politics, Emergency, Riots, Nagas Issue, Indo-Pak, Sino-India ties and the inevitable Nehru Gandhi family.

Living in a generation of constant outrage against the Gandhi family and peevish Modituva politics, it was important for us to know why the Nehru-Gandhi family took center stage in the first place. Moving from a Kashmiri Brahmin Pandit, erudite scholar, freedom fighter, consensus builder, Mass leader, face of the nation, beleaguered and withered leader, Nehru has seen it all. Ram Guha covers most of these crucial later half of Nehru’s life. April/May 1964 events provide a peculiarly poignant coda to the life of nehru’s illustrious career. With so many administrators but not leaders around, Kamraj found a sense of elegance and charisma with Indira, which powered her way to the top job.

As you read, you find a lot of similarities between Modi and Indira. Both are authoritative people who keep servile leaders at their positions of responsibilities and play the card of growth and governance. Both have their share of baggage with Gujarat Riots and Emergency. Despite having efficient leaders, these two leaders possess unparalleled charisma and populist opinion among their party members. Decision making gets centralized and is thrust upon individuals rather than them voting for a custodian of people's rights.

I feel sorry for Lal Bahadur Shastri and Rajiv Gandhi. Both visionaries in their own league, but couldn’t extend their prowess due to their untimely deaths. Also for J.P.Narayan and Rajaji for their experience and wisdom, but couldn’t take up active roles due to old age. Sheik Abdullah, a man who wanted to uphold the interests of the people of Kashmir, has succumbed to the political leadership of India and Pakistan and the mantle is now carried forward by his son Farooq and grandson Omar. We've moved away from a nation which casts its vote to a nation which votes its caste.

It is exhilarating to read the story of a nation with religious fanaticism, language barriers, regional feuds, population explosion, food shortages, inflation and still managed to progress due to some bold and practical decisions.

Overall, this book is an enriching experience for those who want to know the India story and its slow crawl to become what it is today.

Anything for you, ma'am

welll.... so soon..within few days(jus three..lolz.. ) after my kite runner, here comes Anything for you, ma'am by tushar raheja . I,myself could finish this book of in a couple of days.

About the book, Its a nice little romantic entertainer. The story keeps you glued to the book. That's one reason that you finish this book so fast. We can find a tushar raheja in ever single teenage lover on earth.Why it needs to be a IITian's story?may be because tushar is an IITian. Also by the fact that people could buy this book as it is on the lines of 5 point someone.. marketing strategy. The book seems to be an desi version of euro trip. The script has undergone few changes to maintain its originality, but the screenplay is gr8. Tushar's dialogue's fabulous especially his oneliners . This guy can become someone like Prasoon Joshi( of RDB fame) adfilm maker,lyricist.

why should you read this book??
-> The simplicity in the story line. Also a teenage lovestory,every teenager will love this book.
->tushar's narration about her majesty,his senorita.. is amazing. for sure he's enjoyed in narrating these incidents.
-> for those who liked 5 point someone, a similar book on its lines.
->for all those lovers, do care to read the struggles of a fellow lover. comeon man just 100 rupess man.
-> The dialogues were really fabuluous,especially with shreya,about Mr.fate.

why should you not read this book.
-> For all who believe that tushar's trying to ape chetan bhagat,, but noway stands near him.
->Though the screenplay is taut, the flow sucks big time. Tushar has tried time travel in his narration. This makes the simple book a little complicated for the readers. This was unnecessary.
->The cover page sucks big time, something like a cartoon. even if it was plain, it would have been better.
->Too many coincidence may make the reader think that this cannot happen in real life.Its just a story man, accept them as it is.

Rating : 3/5

The Kite Runner

Atlast i've finished this book , been reading this one for a long time.
Back to business, The Kite Runner by Khaled Hosseini is a great book. Initially people(i meant.. myself ) would feel a bit dry. The flow of the book is fabulous. The buildup to the second part is amazing. Khaled hosseini is an Afghan, but in America on a political asylum.

The characterization of each character is really gr8. No man is perfect, thats the base.The protagonist carries his guilt for all the wrong doings. The characters of Amir , Hassan,baba,Sohrab stand out. The right dosage of the sufferings in Afghan by the taliban , these could visualized. If you think of the story as real one, you can do only one thing... Just feel sorry for the sufferings of the Afghans. There are a lot of moral values attached to the doings of the character especially hassan.

overall, a commendable effort from the author. There's a movie adaptation of the book is on the cards(i'm not sure if it has released).For all those movie buffs who don't find time to read a book, have a look at the movie whenever it releases. :)

Rating : 4/5